TO ΙΔΕΩΔΕΣΤΕΡΟ ΟΧΗΜΑ έμμεσης εισαγωγής στο ΕΛΛΗΝΙΚΟ ΧΡΗΜΑΤΙΣΤΗΡΙΟ πιέζεται με ελάχιστα κομμάτια (βάζουν πχ 20 τμχ στο -20% και πάνω εκεί πετάνε προς εκφοβισμό πχ 300 τμχ) ξαναδίνοντας την δυνατότητα αγορών σε όσους διαθέτουν μία σχετική ρευστότητα που μελλοντικά μπορεί να τους αποφέρει σημαντικές αποδόσεις.
ΘΥΓΑΤΡΙΚΗ ΜΕΓΑΛΟΥ ΟΜΙΛΟΥ με εξειδίκευση στις ΑΠΕ etc etc την έχει στο στόχαστρο και δεν είναι η μόνη.
Optima View - Piraeus Financial Holdings || BUY | CP EUR 2.355 | TP EUR 2.80 - A robust set of results, reiterate BUY rating
HELLENiQ ENERGY || BUY | CP EUR 8.41 | TP EUR 9.20
4Q22 results – strong finish to an exceptional fiscal year, results above our and consensus estimates driven by the refinery pave the way for EUR 0.50 final DPS
ΕΝΔΙΑΦΕΡΟΝΤΟΣ ΣΥΝΕΧΕΙΑ ΣΗΜΕΡΑ ΣΤΗΝ ΕΝΑΛΛΑΚΤΙΚΗ
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TO ΙΔΕΩΔΕΣΤΕΡΟ ΟΧΗΜΑ έμμεσης εισαγωγής στο ΕΛΛΗΝΙΚΟ ΧΡΗΜΑΤΙΣΤΗΡΙΟ πιέζεται με ελάχιστα κομμάτια (βάζουν πχ 20 τμχ στο -20% και πάνω εκεί πετάνε προς εκφοβισμό πχ 300 τμχ) ξαναδίνοντας την δυνατότητα αγορών σε όσους διαθέτουν μία σχετική ρευστότητα που μελλοντικά μπορεί να τους αποφέρει σημαντικές αποδόσεις. ΘΥΓΑΤΡΙΚΗ ΜΕΓΑΛΟΥ ΟΜΙΛΟΥ με εξειδίκευση στις ΑΠΕ etc etc την έχει στο στόχαστρο και δεν είναι η μόνη.
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Piraeus Financial Holdings || BUY | CP EUR 2.355 | TP EUR 2.80
A robust set of results, reiterate BUY rating
Optima View | Piraeus delivered a robust set of results that beat ours and consensus estimates on higher than expected net interest income, slightly lower OpEx and provisions. On top of that, capital and asset quality dynamics improved substantially q-o-q, beating our expectations. Following the strong results, we expect the stock to head north. Management will host a conference call today at 15:00 GR/13:00 UK/14:00 CET. Dial-in: GR 2109460800, UK & International +44 (0) 203 059 5872, US +1 516 447 5632.
Bottom line | 4Q22 net profit came in at EUR 170m (+47% q-o-q), well above Optima (+21%) and consensus estimates (+38%). Net profit for the year reached EUR 949m against a loss of EUR 3.01bn in 2021, above our estimate of EUR 920m. Normalised EPS adj. for AT1 coupon stood at EUR 0.42, well above 2022 guidance of EUR >0.37. Recall that management has guided for a normalised EPS adj. for AT1 coupon of EUR >0.45 in 2023.
Pre-provision income | NII was shaped at EUR 431m (+30% q-o-q), well above Optima (+11%) and consensus estimates (+15%). NIM over assets expanded to 2.20% from 1.61% in 3Q22. Fee income reached EUR 125m (-2% q-o-q), broadly in line with our estimate (-2%). Total revenues stood at EUR 577m (+12% q-o-q), above Optima (+2%) and consensus estimates (+8%). OpEx came in at EUR 242.0m (+3% q-o-q), 2% lower than ours and consensus estimates. PPI reached EUR 334m (+19% q-o-q), above Optima (+5%) and well above consensus estimates (+17%).
Asset quality | LLPs came in at EUR 103m (+13% q-o-q), lower than our estimate (-5%). Group NPEs reached EUR 2.6bn (EUR -707m q-o-q). The NPE ratio squeezed by 200bps q-o-q to 6.8% and the NPE coverage widened to 54.1% from 48.6% In 3Q22. Organic NPE formation remained negative at EUR -156m from EUR -71m in 3Q22.
Capital | Tangible equity rose by EUR 215m q-o-q to EUR 5.6bn and TBVPS stood at EUR 4.51 vs. EUR 4.34 in 3Q22. FL CET1 widened to 11.5% in 2022 from 10.4% in 3Q22 and 8.6% in 2021, beating our estimate of 11.2%.
Balance sheet | Net performing loans increased by EUR 2.7bn in 2022, above FY target and our estimates. Deposits grew by EUR 1.6bn q-o-q to EUR 58.4bn. LDR improved further to 62% vs. 64% in 3Q22.
Time deposits | No shift to time depos hitherto, as they accounted for 19% of total on 17/2/23 from 18% in 4Q22. The cost has widened to 0.92% from 0.54% in 4Q22.
Valuation | We reiterate our Buy rating and following the release of 4Q22 results, we will review and update our FY estimates and target price. The stock is trading 0.52x P/TBV22A and 0.46x P/TBV23E, at a material discount of 46% to its South European peers and at 28% discount to its Greek peers.
Quarterly P&L – Group
(EUR m) | 4Q22A | 3Q22A | QoQ | 4Q21A | YoY | vs Optima | vs Cons |
Net Interest Income | 431.0 | 330.6 | 30% | 318.3 | 35% | 11% | 15% |
Fee income | 125.0 | 128.2 | -2% | 114.6 | 9% | -2% | -1% |
Core income | 556.0 | 458.8 | 21% | 432.9 | 28% | 8% | 11% |
Non-core Revenues | 20.0 | 57.4 | -65% | 181.6 | -89% | -59% | -38% |
Total revenues | 577.0 | 516.1 | 12% | 614.5 | -6% | 2% | 8% |
Operating Expenses | (242.0) | (234.5) | 3% | (209.4) | 16% | -2% | -2% |
Pre Provision Profit | 334.0 | 281.6 | 19% | 405.1 | -18% | 5% | 17% |
Loan Loss Provisions | (103.0) | (91.5) | 13% | (199.0) | -48% | -5% | 7% |
Reported net profit | 170.0 | 115.6 | 47% | (638.8) | -127% | 21% | 38% |
Source: Piraeus Financial Holdings consensus - Median estimates, Optima bank Research
HELLENiQ ENERGY || BUY | CP EUR 8.41 | TP EUR 9.20
4Q22 results – strong finish to an exceptional fiscal year, results above our and consensus estimates driven by the refinery pave the way for EUR 0.50 final DPS
Facts: HELLENiQ ENERGY reported 4Q22 “adjusted” group EBITDA increased by >3x YoY to EUR 465m (beating our and consensus estimates), while “adjusted” net income soared to EUR 261m from “adjusted” net profits of EUR 93m in 4Q21. Accounting for inventory and one off losses of EUR 316m vs. inventory and one off losses of EUR 12m in 4Q21, HELLENiQ ENERGY reported IFRS EBITDA of EUR 149m, up 18% YoY and IFRS net losses of EUR 232m (including the one-off solidarity tax of EUR 304m) compared to net profit of EUR 83m in 4Q21. On a FY22 basis, “adjusted” EBITDA rose by 299% to EUR 1601m, while “adjusted” net income reached EUR 1,006m from EUR 144m in FY21. Finally, accounting for inventory and one off gains of EUR 116m vs. inventory and on off gains of EUR 256m in 2021, IFRS EBITDA soars to EUR 1,717m from EBITDA of EUR 657m in 2021, with IFRS net income also jumping to EUR 889m from net profits of EUR 341m in 2021. The strong profitability paves the way to HE to distribute a final DPS of EUR 0.50 (ex-date 28 June 2023, payable on July 5, 2023), on top of the recently distributed interim DPS of EUR 0.25 and the 0.40 from DEPA Infrastructure sale proceeds last November.
4Q/FY22 Group Key P&L Results
EUR m | 4Q21 | 4Q22 | YoY | Consensus | Optima | actual vs. Optima | FY21 | FY22 | Y-o-Y change |
IFRS EBITDA | 126 | 149 | 18% |
| 298 | -50% | 657 | 1717 | 161% |
“Adjusted” EBITDA* | 138 | 465 | 237% | 440 | 399 | 16% | 401 | 1601 | 299% |
refining | 86 | 440 | 412% |
| 371 | 19% | 161 | 1384 | 760% |
marketing | 25 | 14 | -44% |
| 10 | 46% | 120 | 138 | 15% |
petchems | 28 | 16 | -43% |
| 18 | -9% | 131 | 74 | -44% |
RES/other | -1 | -6 | 500% |
| 2 | -359% | -10 | 5 | -150% |
IFRS Net Income*, ** | 83 | -232 | -380% |
| -225 | 3% | 341 | 889 | 161% |
“Adjusted” Net Income* | 93 | 261 | 181% | 98 | 234 | 12% | 144 | 1006 | 599% |
Source: Optima bank, the Company
*excluding inventory effect and one-offs
**also including the retrospective negative EUR 304m impact from the solidarity contribution
Domestic refining and trading division: HELLENiQ ENERGY’s realized blended margin (incl. propylene contribution which is reported under Petchems) in 4Q22 remained at high levels of USD 25.3/bbl from USD 21.8/bbl in 3Q22 and USD 11.8/bbl in 4Q21, well outperforming the USD 12.7/bbl benchmark margin, mainly on deeper crude discounts. The refinery utilization rate in 4Q22 was 97% vs. 105% a year ago (4Q22 performance was partially impacted by the shut-down of Thessaloniki refinery for maintenance). Sales volume was consequently down by 9% YoY to 3.76m tons, driven by a 18.6% YoY drop in exports sales to 1,779 tons. All in, 4Q22 “adjusted” EBITDA skyrocketed to EUR 440m (vs. EUR 86m a year ago). On a FY22 basis, adjusted EBITDA soars to EUR 1,384m (vs. EUR 161m in FY21.
Marketing: Domestic demand in 4Q22 rose by 3% YoY (gasoline -5%, diesel -5%) also exceeding by 4% the 3Q19 levels. Jet fuel demand was also up by 14% YoY (on easy comparables, driven by the full recovery of tourism) and 7% VS. 4Q19, while bunkering demand still lags behind by 7% and 30% compared to 4Q21 and 4Q19 respectively. Consequently, domestic EBITDA turned negative at EUR 4m (vs. profits of EUR 9m in 4Q21) due to the special discounts on HGO, inventory losses and higher transport/storage costs weigh on profits, while international marketing EBITDA was down by 10% YoY to EUR 18m. On a FY22 basis, “adjusted” EBITDA contributed EUR 138m, representing a 8% YoY increase.
Petrochemicals: Weak PP margins led to reduced petchems contribution led Adj. EBITDA lower by 45% YoY at EUR 16m in 4Q22, with the FY22 figure also down by 44% to EUR 74m.
Power & gas (equity consolidation): Elpedison’s EBITDA contribution remained strong at EUR 18m from EUR 4m in 4Q21 also aided by gas trading opportunities, while FY22 EBITDA more than doubled to EUR 62m (from EUR 26m in 2021). DEPA EBITDA contribution was negative at EUR 15m, with 2022 EBITDA standing at EUR 29m, down by 53% YoY.
RES: segmental profitability in 4Q22 was increased to EUR 9m (from only EUR 1m a year ago), driven by the expansion of installed capacity to 341MW (on a 71%/29% solar/wind split) by 4Q22-end (from only 65MW a year ago)
FCF & Net debt: FCF in 2022 was strong at EUR 461m from negative FCF of EUR 106m in 2021 on strong operating profitability which more than offset the enormous adverse WC movements of EUR 1,022m (mainly driven by inventory appreciation) and increased capex of EUR 512m driven by refining (EUR 192m). After receiving EUR 266m from the DEPA transaction, paying EUR 247m for dividends and EUR 102m for interest expenses, group net debt (excluding leasing liabilities) remained flat YoY at the end of 2022 at EUR 1.94bn from.
Conference call comments: a) expects stronger gasoline cracks in the following months, b) RES capacity currently at 340MW, total portfolio 2GW, more projects to be announced soon, c) EUR 0.9bn total bank loans maturing in 4Q22 have been already refinanced at improved terms in terms of credit spreads, d) RES capacity at 341MW, total portfolio currently at >2.5 GW under various stages of development, expects to reach 600MW installed capacity in the next 18-24 months, e) expects first test drilling for Natural Gas in SW of Crete in 18-24 months.
ΒΚΠ