Τρίτη 14 Μαρτίου 2023

BETA SEC: we expect NBG to post a quarterly robust core income growth

 

NBG (Q4:22 results preview): NBG is set to announce Q4:22 results today after market hours followed by a conference call. Following BoP’s and Eurobank’s strong NII generation in Q4:22 we expect NBG to post a quarterly robust core income growth on the back of higher market rates and limited deposit repricing. In more details:

§  NBG is expected to post NII growth of 17.9% q-o-q reaching €410m in Q4:22. Fees are seen flattish at satisfactory €88m. On the flip side OpEx is expected higher at €220m vs €197m in Q3:22 reflecting seasonal and inflationary trends.

§  Pre-provision-Income is expected at a strong €298m (+19.4%) of which €278m are related to core PPI generation.

§  NBG will keep impairment losses at a relatively low levels vs. peers charging €58m in the quarter which corresponds to 65bps CoR. Note that NBG has a low NPE ratio of 5.6% in Q3:22 with 81.8% coverage.

§  In Q4:22 NBG has proceeded with the conclusion of the sale of 51% of EVO payments for a total consideration €158m. NBG guided that the transaction is capital accretive by 60bps in CET-1 (15.7%).

§  All in, we expect NBG to post net profit of €370m. In the conference call we expect NBG to provide fresh outlook for 2023 and targets in key balance sheet and P/L figures. NBG trades at 0.70x its TBV

 

The following table summarise our Q4:22 estimates:

 

NBG

Act.

Act.

Est.

Latest read

Overview

(In Million Euro)

4Q21

3Q22

4Q22

QoQ

YoY

NII

308

348

410

17.9%

33.2%

Fee income

74

88

88

-0.3%

18.4%

Trading Income

-4

14

25

78.6%

741.0%

Insurance/Other Income

-5

-3

-5

-47.1%

-8.7%

Total income

373.5

446.6

518.0

16.0%

38.7%

Operating costs

-212

-197

-220

-11.6%

-3.6%

Pre-provision-profits

161.1

249.5

298.0

19.4%

85.0%

Core PPI

169.6

238.9

278.0

16.4%

63.9%

Provisions

-49

-56

-58

-4.5%

-18.6%

Other results

13

0

0

 

 

PBT

124.7

194.0

240.0

23.7%

92.5%

Corporate taxes

5

32

-70

-317.5%

-1492.0%

Net profit (continued)

120

162

170

5.2%

42.4%

Discontinued operations

-20

-28

200

814.3%

1100.0%

Net profit

100

134

370

176.4%

271.5%

 

Conference Call details: Tuesday, 14th of March 2023, 18:00 GR-Time

§  GR           +30 213 009 6000 or +30 210 94 60 800

§  UK           +44 (0) 800 368 1063

§  UK & Intl +44 (0) 203 059 5872

§  US           +1 516 447 5632

§  WEB        https://hdeu.choruscall.com/?h=true&passcode=80271326&info=company&r=true