NBG (Q4:22 results preview): NBG is set to announce Q4:22 results today after market hours followed by a conference call. Following BoP’s and Eurobank’s strong NII generation in Q4:22 we expect NBG to post a quarterly robust core income growth on the back of higher market rates and limited deposit repricing. In more details:
§ NBG is expected to post NII growth of 17.9% q-o-q reaching €410m in Q4:22. Fees are seen flattish at satisfactory €88m. On the flip side OpEx is expected higher at €220m vs €197m in Q3:22 reflecting seasonal and inflationary trends.
§ Pre-provision-Income is expected at a strong €298m (+19.4%) of which €278m are related to core PPI generation.
§ NBG will keep impairment losses at a relatively low levels vs. peers charging €58m in the quarter which corresponds to 65bps CoR. Note that NBG has a low NPE ratio of 5.6% in Q3:22 with 81.8% coverage.
§ In Q4:22 NBG has proceeded with the conclusion of the sale of 51% of EVO payments for a total consideration €158m. NBG guided that the transaction is capital accretive by 60bps in CET-1 (15.7%).
§ All in, we expect NBG to post net profit of €370m. In the conference call we expect NBG to provide fresh outlook for 2023 and targets in key balance sheet and P/L figures. NBG trades at 0.70x its TBV
The following table summarise our Q4:22 estimates:
NBG | Act. | Act. | Est. | Latest read | Overview |
(In Million Euro) | 4Q21 | 3Q22 | 4Q22 | QoQ | YoY |
NII | 308 | 348 | 410 | 17.9% | 33.2% |
Fee income | 74 | 88 | 88 | -0.3% | 18.4% |
Trading Income | -4 | 14 | 25 | 78.6% | 741.0% |
Insurance/Other Income | -5 | -3 | -5 | -47.1% | -8.7% |
Total income | 373.5 | 446.6 | 518.0 | 16.0% | 38.7% |
Operating costs | -212 | -197 | -220 | -11.6% | -3.6% |
Pre-provision-profits | 161.1 | 249.5 | 298.0 | 19.4% | 85.0% |
Core PPI | 169.6 | 238.9 | 278.0 | 16.4% | 63.9% |
Provisions | -49 | -56 | -58 | -4.5% | -18.6% |
Other results | 13 | 0 | 0 |
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PBT | 124.7 | 194.0 | 240.0 | 23.7% | 92.5% |
Corporate taxes | 5 | 32 | -70 | -317.5% | -1492.0% |
Net profit (continued) | 120 | 162 | 170 | 5.2% | 42.4% |
Discontinued operations | -20 | -28 | 200 | 814.3% | 1100.0% |
Net profit | 100 | 134 | 370 | 176.4% | 271.5% |
Conference Call details: Tuesday, 14th of March 2023, 18:00 GR-Time
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