Τετάρτη 15 Μαρτίου 2023

Alpha Bank (Q4:22 results review)

 

Alpha Bank announced a satisfactory set of results broadly in line with our estimates. 


Alpha Bank trades 0.51x its tangible FY:22 book value (TBVPS at €2.46) 


As it was the case for other systemic banks NII came stronger on the back of higher interest rates as well as a higher contribution from performing loans and bonds offsetting partial loss of ECB contribution and wholesale funding headwinds. 


Alpha also guided for no less than 9% RoTE in FY:23 vs. 7.6% in FY:22.  A conference call will follow in the day to give more color on Outlook and recent trends. In more details:





§  NII came higher in Q4:22 up 17% q-o-q. Fees and Commissions cane at in €98m or +4% q-o-q excluding impacts from Merchant acquiring. Growth across all segments bar in cards & payments that’s impacted by seasonally high Q3.

§  Reported Q4:22 profit came at in €63m; Normalised net income came at €105m, excluding (a) non-recurring Operating Expenses of €16mn, (b) NPA transactions impact of €36m, (c) gains from discontinued operations and other of €5m and €5m tax charge related to the above.

§  FL CET1 came at 12.5% pro-forma for transactions, +33bp q-o-q in line with business plan.  Organic capital generation including the impact from DTC amortisation c30bp in the quarter and c90bp for the year.

§  Provisions came at in €90m in the quarter of which €69m is underlying CoR, €16m for servicing fees and €5m for securitisation expenses. Total gives a 93bp CoR, bringing the total for the year to 76bp. Transactions costs of €36m net of tax mainly on Sky and Skyline.

§  NPE formation negative for the Group (-€0.1bn) with lower inflows. Coverage at 41% reflects underlying mix with bias towards mortgages and <90dpd, NPE ratio at 7.8% -20bp q-o-q.

§  Alpha Bank guides for mid-teens NII growth in FY:23 <7% NPE ratio, >9% RoTE, C/I at 49% or mid40% ex Deposit Guaranty Fund, loan growth of mid-single digit growth y-o-y, CoR at 85bp (vs 76bp in FY:22) and TBV of >2.6bn or 6% y-o-y.


The following table summarise results vs. our Q4:22 estimates:

 

Alpha Bank

Act.

Act.

Act.

Latest read

Overview

Est.

 

Act.

Act.

Overview

(In Million Euro)

4Q21

3Q22

4Q22

QoQ

YoY

4Q22

vs Est.

FY:21

FY:22

YoY

NII

297.8

339.0

398.1

17.4%

33.7%

387

2.9%

1,375.9

1,323.0

-3.8%

Fee income

104.3

92.9

97.9

5.4%

-6.2%

96

2.5%

395.6

396.1

0.1%

Trading

24.7

64.9

6.4

-90.1%

-74.1%

15

-57.3%

142.6

177.2

24.2%

Other Income

4.4

49.3

10.5

 

 

6

 

31.6

98.9

213.0%

Total income

431.2

546.2

512.9

-6.1%

19.0%

503.5

1.9%

1,945.7

1,995.2

2.5%

Operating costs

-295.3

-227.8

-274.7

-20.6%

7.0%

-275

0.1%

-1,203.3

-987.9

17.9%

Pre-provision-profits

135.8

318.4

238.2

-25.2%

75.4%

228.5

4.3%

742.4

1,007.3

35.7%

Core PPI

106.8

204.1

221.3

8.4%

107.3%

207.5

6.6%

794.6

840.9

5.8%

Provisions

-548.1

-58.3

-89.9

-54.2%

83.6%

-90

0.1%

-373.5

-288.0

22.9%

Other results

-3.7

-80.3

-0.5

99.4%

87.9%

0

 

-21.0

2.4

111.3%

PBT

-416.0

179.9

147.9

-17.8%

135.5%

138.5

6.8%

347.9

721.7

107.5%

Corporate taxes

-38.7

90.8

53.3

-41.3%

237.8%

40

32.8%

-50.8

-224.2

-341.3%

Net profit (continued)

-377

89

95

6.1%

125.1%

98

-3.9%

297.1

497.5

67.5%

Discontinued operations

-30.8

3.7

-31.9

 

 

-35

 

-3,203.1

-99.5

96.9%

Net profit

-408.1

92.8

62.6

-32.5%

115.3%

63

-1.2%

-2,906.1

398.0

113.7%

 

Conference Call details: Wednesday, 15th of March 2023, 12:00 GR-Time

§  GR           +30 2111802000

§  UK           +44 (0) 800 368 1063

§  UK & Intl +44 (0) 203 059 5872

§  US           +1 516 447 5632

§  WEB        https://hdeu.choruscall.com/?h=true&passcode=91471311&info=company&r=true