Alpha Bank announced a satisfactory set of results broadly in line with our estimates.
Alpha Bank trades 0.51x its tangible FY:22 book value (TBVPS at €2.46)
As it was the case for other systemic banks NII came stronger on the back of higher interest rates as well as a higher contribution from performing loans and bonds offsetting partial loss of ECB contribution and wholesale funding headwinds.
Alpha also guided for no less than 9% RoTE in FY:23 vs. 7.6% in FY:22. A conference call will follow in the day to give more color on Outlook and recent trends. In more details:
§ NII came higher in Q4:22 up 17% q-o-q. Fees and Commissions cane at in €98m or +4% q-o-q excluding impacts from Merchant acquiring. Growth across all segments bar in cards & payments that’s impacted by seasonally high Q3.
§ Reported Q4:22 profit came at in €63m; Normalised net income came at €105m, excluding (a) non-recurring Operating Expenses of €16mn, (b) NPA transactions impact of €36m, (c) gains from discontinued operations and other of €5m and €5m tax charge related to the above.
§ FL CET1 came at 12.5% pro-forma for transactions, +33bp q-o-q in line with business plan. Organic capital generation including the impact from DTC amortisation c30bp in the quarter and c90bp for the year.
§ Provisions came at in €90m in the quarter of which €69m is underlying CoR, €16m for servicing fees and €5m for securitisation expenses. Total gives a 93bp CoR, bringing the total for the year to 76bp. Transactions costs of €36m net of tax mainly on Sky and Skyline.
§ NPE formation negative for the Group (-€0.1bn) with lower inflows. Coverage at 41% reflects underlying mix with bias towards mortgages and <90dpd, NPE ratio at 7.8% -20bp q-o-q.
§ Alpha Bank guides for mid-teens NII growth in FY:23 <7% NPE ratio, >9% RoTE, C/I at 49% or mid40% ex Deposit Guaranty Fund, loan growth of mid-single digit growth y-o-y, CoR at 85bp (vs 76bp in FY:22) and TBV of >2.6bn or 6% y-o-y.
The following table summarise results vs. our Q4:22 estimates:
Alpha Bank | Act. | Act. | Act. | Latest read | Overview | Est. |
| Act. | Act. | Overview |
(In Million Euro) | 4Q21 | 3Q22 | 4Q22 | QoQ | YoY | 4Q22 | vs Est. | FY:21 | FY:22 | YoY |
NII | 297.8 | 339.0 | 398.1 | 17.4% | 33.7% | 387 | 2.9% | 1,375.9 | 1,323.0 | -3.8% |
Fee income | 104.3 | 92.9 | 97.9 | 5.4% | -6.2% | 96 | 2.5% | 395.6 | 396.1 | 0.1% |
Trading | 24.7 | 64.9 | 6.4 | -90.1% | -74.1% | 15 | -57.3% | 142.6 | 177.2 | 24.2% |
Other Income | 4.4 | 49.3 | 10.5 |
|
| 6 |
| 31.6 | 98.9 | 213.0% |
Total income | 431.2 | 546.2 | 512.9 | -6.1% | 19.0% | 503.5 | 1.9% | 1,945.7 | 1,995.2 | 2.5% |
Operating costs | -295.3 | -227.8 | -274.7 | -20.6% | 7.0% | -275 | 0.1% | -1,203.3 | -987.9 | 17.9% |
Pre-provision-profits | 135.8 | 318.4 | 238.2 | -25.2% | 75.4% | 228.5 | 4.3% | 742.4 | 1,007.3 | 35.7% |
Core PPI | 106.8 | 204.1 | 221.3 | 8.4% | 107.3% | 207.5 | 6.6% | 794.6 | 840.9 | 5.8% |
Provisions | -548.1 | -58.3 | -89.9 | -54.2% | 83.6% | -90 | 0.1% | -373.5 | -288.0 | 22.9% |
Other results | -3.7 | -80.3 | -0.5 | 99.4% | 87.9% | 0 |
| -21.0 | 2.4 | 111.3% |
PBT | -416.0 | 179.9 | 147.9 | -17.8% | 135.5% | 138.5 | 6.8% | 347.9 | 721.7 | 107.5% |
Corporate taxes | -38.7 | 90.8 | 53.3 | -41.3% | 237.8% | 40 | 32.8% | -50.8 | -224.2 | -341.3% |
Net profit (continued) | -377 | 89 | 95 | 6.1% | 125.1% | 98 | -3.9% | 297.1 | 497.5 | 67.5% |
Discontinued operations | -30.8 | 3.7 | -31.9 |
|
| -35 |
| -3,203.1 | -99.5 | 96.9% |
Net profit | -408.1 | 92.8 | 62.6 | -32.5% | 115.3% | 63 | -1.2% | -2,906.1 | 398.0 | 113.7% |
Conference Call details: Wednesday, 15th of March 2023, 12:00 GR-Time
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