Alpha Bank (Q4:22 results preview): Alpha Bank will release its Full Year 2022 results on Wednesday, March 15, 2023, at 08:00 a.m.
GR-time and a conference call will follow later in the day.
NII is expected to drive profitability on back of higher interest rates while. On the flip side Alpha is expected to increase CoR to improve NPEs coverage.
In a nutshell: NII is seen higher 14.1% q-o-q as it was the case with systemic peers while fee income is expected to reach €95.5m up 2.8% q-o-q.
Reported operating costs are forecasted higher by 20.7% q-o-q at €275m reflecting seasonality, increased IT/digitalization integration and marketing expenses and some restructuring costs.
On the CoR we expect Alpha to increase provisioning catching up the 2022 guidance of 90bps and proactively book some extra charges ahead of FY:23 loan interest rates increase.
All in we forecast Alpha to post €63.3m net profit in the quarter. NPE formation to remain flattish with NPE balances to €3.2bn (7.9%) at end Q4:22.
Alpha Bank is expected to provide an updated business plan for 2023-2024 and guidance in profitability and asset quality. Alpha Bank trades 0.49x its tangible FY:22 book value.
The following table summarise our Q4:22 estimates:
Alpha Bank | Act. | Act. | Est. | Latest read | Overview |
(In Million Euro) | 4Q21 | 3Q22 | 4Q22 | QoQ | YoY |
NII | 297.8 | 339.0 | 387.0 | 14.1% | 30.0% |
Fee income | 104.3 | 92.9 | 95.5 | 2.8% | -8.4% |
Trading | 24.7 | 64.9 | 15.0 | -76.9% | -39.3% |
Other Income | 4.4 | 49.3 | 6.0 |
|
|
Total income | 431.2 | 546.2 | 503.5 | -7.8% | 16.8% |
Operating costs | -295.3 | -227.8 | -275.0 | -20.7% | 6.9% |
Pre-provision-profits | 135.8 | 318.4 | 228.5 | -28.2% | 68.2% |
Core PPI | 106.8 | 204.1 | 207.5 | 1.6% | 94.4% |
Provisions | -548.1 | -58.3 | -90.0 | -54.3% | 83.6% |
Other results | -3.7 | -80.3 | 0.0 |
|
|
PBT | -416.0 | 179.9 | 138.5 | -23.0% | 133.3% |
Corporate taxes | -38.7 | 90.8 | 40.2 | -55.8% | 203.8% |
Net profit (continued) | -377 | 89 | 98 | 10.4% | 126.1% |
Discontinued operations | -30.8 | 3.7 | -35.0 |
|
|
Net profit | -408.1 | 92.8 | 63.3 | -31.7% | 115.5% |
Conference Call details: Wednesday, 15th of March 2023, 12:00 GR-Time
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