Παρασκευή 24 Φεβρουαρίου 2023

OTE - Full year 2022 review and Conference Call highlights (by Beta Securities)


OTE (FY:22 review and CC highlights): The company reported an in line set of FY:22 financial performance characterized by strong Greek underlying trends (best in the last 10 years) and weak (top line) Romanian Mobile operations. In more details:

 

§  Consolidated revenues up 3.6% to €3.455bn from €3.336bn.  Adjusted EBITDA (Leasing charges adjusted) up 4% to €1.348bn from €1.296mn. EBITDA (AL) margin flat y-o-y to 39% vs 38.8%.  Reported net profit down 20.2% to €388.6mn vs €487mn in FY:21. Adjusted Net profit +9.8% to €540.7mn from €492.4mn and vs €534.2mn consensus estimate.

§  Greece: Greek Revenues and EBITDA reached last decade highest point. Greek FY:22 sales +3.6% to €3.155bn (€3.046bn in FY:21). Greek EBITDA (AL) margin flat at 41.5% mitigated to +3.5% y-o-y growth to Adjusted EBITDA (AL) figure (€1.31bn vs €1.265bn in 2021). Retail Fixed revenues down 1.8% to €933.4mn on due to transition from traditional voice services to IP solutions and broadband revenue decline due to service upgrades and customer loyalty programs. Mobile revenues up by 4.3% to €986.7mn driven by both postpaid and prepaid performance. Strong roaming revenues due to increased tourist usage all year long. Solid operation KPI with FTTx up 26% and FTTH net additions 27K. TV subscribers up 3% to 643K. ICT revenues (reported as other) up 14.4% to €645.3mn (€564mn in 2021).

§  Romania: Romanian mobile sales -2.9% to €306.4mn from €315.5mn reflecting the impact of mobile termination rate (MTR) reductions, as well as the contribution of certain MVNO activities in Q4’21, phased out in the second half of 2022. Retention initiatives related to subsidy offerings dented mobile services revenues down by 8.55 to €203mn (yearly change). Further EBITDA (AL) margin improvement to 12.4% (from 9.7%0 recording FY:22 EBITDA (AL) €38mn vs €30.5mn a year earlier.

§  Net debt (including leases) €726.7mn, down 7% y-o-y (€781.2mn in FY:21). Net Debt/EBITDA at 0.5x.

§  CAPEX €639.5mn, Adjusted CAPEX (ex any spectrum payments) €638.3mn

§  FY:22 FCF €680.4mn (from €552.5mn), FCF (AL) €597.1mn, Adjusted FCF €654.2mn.

§  Shareholders’ remuneration €425mn in 2023, divided into €250mn dividend (gross €0.5765/share, DY 4%) and €175 in share buybacks, which will be cancelled at a later stage.


§  FY:23 guidance: FCF €500mn, CAPEX €640mn, short term EBITDA (AL) margin pressure likely due to intense domestic completion. Focus on new profit generation streams like payment platform (PAYZY) and food delivery (BOX), further broadband (FTTH) penetration and 5G expansion.

§  CC Highlights: No intention to change remuneration policy for 2022. Restructuring in Romania mobile to continue but on tough operating environment. Challenging Greek operations due to intense competition will most probably hurt margins and profitability in H1:23, competition to ease in H2.

 

Reported and adjusted results are as follows:

 

ΟΤΕ Adjusted

2021

2022

Y-o-Y

2022 Est.

Act. vs

EUR thous.

FY

FY

(%)

FY

Est.

Sales

3,368.3

3,455.3

2.6% 

3,471.0

-0.5% 

EBITDA Adj

1,381.7

1,430.7

3.5% 

1,388.0

3.1% 

EBITDA Mrg

41.0% 

41.4% 

+39 bps 

40.0% 

+142 bps 

Net Income Adj

492.4

540.7

9.8% 

534.17

1.2% 

Net Mrg

14.6% 

15.6% 

+103 bps 

15.4% 

+26 bps 

 

ΟΤΕ Reported

2021

2022

Y-o-Y

EUR thous.

FY

FY

(%)

Sales

3,368.3

3,455.3

2.6% 

EBITDA

1,479.9

1,385.6

-6.4% 

EBITDA Mrg

43.9% 

40.1% 

-384 bps 

Net Income

557.6

388.6

-30.3% 

Net Mrg

16.6% 

11.2% 

-531 bps